I’m not dead yet

No, I haven’t quit the blog.

I’ve been working on figuring out a better way to make gameday predictions instead of just being a homer and throwing down two numbers on the page.  (“Penguins will win, 6-3!”)  I think I’ve got something, or at least the start of something, which is good.

Gameday – Panthers – 05 Mar 2009

Well, well, well.  If it isn’t old Billy Guerin in the house.  I like having him for the team, but I don’t know if it’s worth losing Satan himself to make it happen.  The best part about this is, however, that Satan will be available for the playoffs, because the salary cap doesn’t mean diddly squat then.

Penguins record: 33-26-6 (72 points/1.11 PPG)

Panthers record: 33-23-8 (74 points/1.16 PPG)

Leading scorers: Evgeni Malkin (29g-64a) and Stephen Weiss (11g-37a)

Biggest offensive bang for the salary cap buck: temporarily out of order due to sites not being updated

The Panthers are 19-7-2 when they score first, 14-16-6 when they don’t. If Florida is up at the end of the first, they’re 14-5-2, and they’re 23-1-1 if they’re up at the end of two. Furthermore, they are 7-13-4 if they trail after one period, and 3-20-4 if they trail after two. Wide, wide splits.  The Penguins need to score quickly in order to stave off defeat tonight.

Florida is 10-5-3 when they outshoot you, and 23-18-5 when they don’t. Florida doesn’t get many shots, and their goalies get a lot of pucks thrown at them.

Period by period, the Panthers are +4 in the first period, +1 in the second, -1 in the third, and +2 in overtime. They score 2.8 GF/G (tied for 14th in the league), compared to Pittsburgh’s 3.0, and they give up 2.7 GA/G (tied for 6th in the league), compared to Pittsburgh’s 3.0.

Prediction and Playoff watch: Marc-Andre Fleury and Tomas Vokoun are both probable to be in net tonight. Vokoun’s been great lately. Playoff chances, according to Sports Club Stats, currently sit all the way up at 64.9%. Today, root for the Penguins to get 2 points, preferably in regulation, and the Islanders to beat the Rangers in regulation.

Gameday – Stars – 01 Mar 2009

Quick gameday because I’m a joke and forgot the game today is to start at 3 in the afternoon.

Sports Club Stats has the Penguins with a 54.8% chance to make the playoffs.  Root for the Penguins and Capitals today.  It looks like Fleury is in net AGAIN today (just once I’m going to link Theo Fleury instead and see if anyone notices), and it is firm that Tobias Stephan will start for the Stars.  He’s gotten very sparse playing time this year, so it’s nearly impossible for me to guess how well he’ll do.  Likely, not so great, but we know how the Penguins seem to like to play down to a backup goalie’s abilities.

Also, what’s with the big boost in visits to the blog today?  They look like mostly people typing in the address, and I find that very hard to believe.

Playoff Race Update

Yes that’s right, your Pittsburgh Penguins now have a better than even shot at making the playoffs. 50.7% due to their win last night against the Blackhawks of Chicago.

Tonight, you’re pulling for the Thrashers, the Avalanche, the Islanders, the Devils in regulation, and the Sharks in regulation.

Gameday – Blackhawks – 27 Feb 2009

So much for Pesonen sticking with Pittsburgh.  He’s back in Wilkes-Barre along with Chris Minard.  Crosby‘s continuing to ail, though, so Tim Wallace is up for this game.  No word on whether he’ll actually play, but he was on the fourth line in the morning skate.

Penguins record: 30-26-6 (66 points/1.06 PPG)

Blackhawks record: 34-17-8 (76 points/1.29 PPG)

Leading scorers: Evgeni Malkin (27g-61a) and Patrick Kane (20g-34a)

Biggest offensive bang for the salary cap buck: Tyler Kennedy ($27,083.35 per point), Colin Fraser ($33,333.33 per point)

The Blackhawks are 23-5-3 when they score first, 11-12-5 when they don’t. If Chicago is up at the end of the first, they’re 19-3-3, and they’re 28-2-3 if they’re up at the end of two. Furthermore, they are 7-7-3 if they trail after one period, and 2-10-2 if they trail after two. This is not a team that can make up a deficit.

Chicago is 22-10-3 when they outshoot you, and 12-7-5 when they don’t. The way the Penguins have been outshooting everyone lately, this may not be much of a problem.

Period by period, the Blackhawks are +15 in the first period, +22 in the second, +15 in the third, and even in overtime. They score 3.3 GF/G (tied for 3rd in the league), compared to Pittsburgh’s 2.9, and they give up 2.4 GA/G (also tied for 3rd in the league), compared to Pittsburgh’s 3.0.

Prediction and Playoff watch: Cristobal Huet will definitely be in net for the Blackhawks, and it appears that Marc-Andre Fleury is likely to be in goal for the Penguins yet again. Huet’s been above average this year while splitting time with Nikolai Khabibulin, but he’s come down to earth since his 6-0-1 run through December in which he had a .947 save percentage and a 1.42 GAA.  I’m leery of another game without Sid, though, and as hopeful as most of us are that Chris Kunitz will be a helpful addition, he hasn’t played with the team before, and he’s already a known quantity to Chicago.  Playoff chances, according to Sports Club Stats, currently sit at 40.8%. Today, root for the Penguins to get 2 points and the Flyers to win in regulation, thereby denying Montreal points…that is, if you can bring yourself to do so.

Penguins trade Whitney

The Penguins have traded defenseman Ryan Whitney to the Anaheim Ducks for LW Chris Kunitz and OHL LW Eric Tangradi.  Kunitz is a second-line type guy who scores between 19 and 25 goals the last three seasons, and, I imagine, will get a shot to play alongside Crosby here in Pittsburgh.  Tangradi was considered by Hockey’s Future to be the second-best prospect in Anaheim’s system; they project him to be a first- or second-line winger, who has “all the tools to be a dominating force on the ice, from size and strength, to offensive ability and vision, to strong skating ability and a rough-and-tumble style. “

Did I mention he’s 6’4″, 221 lbs?  Yeah, that’s right.  He’s Kevin Stevens circa 1985, but already where Stevens was a few years later.

Gameday – Islanders – 25 Feb 2009

It seems like we were just here, playing this game.  Crosby out with an apparent groin pull, Whitney out to deal with some family stuff up in Boston.  This leaves the door open for the returns of Kris Letang and Janne Pesonen.  Hopefully Pesonen will actually get a real shot at sticking on a top line tonight.

Penguins record: 29-26-6 (64 points/1.05 PPG)

Islanders record: 18-35-6 (42 points/0.71 PPG)

Leading scorers: Evgeni Malkin (27g-60a) and Mark Streit (11g-31a)

Biggest offensive bang for the salary cap buck: Tyler Kennedy ($27,083.35 per point), Frans Nielsen ($27,631.58 per point)

The Islanders are 14-11-1 when they score first, 4-24-5 when they don’t. If New York is up at the end of the first, they’re 6-7-1, and they’re 14-4-2 if they’re up at the end of two. Furthermore, they are 3-16-4 if they trail after one period, and 1-26-4 if they trail after two. This is a failure of a team.

New York is 6-8-1 when they outshoot you, and 12-27-5 when they don’t. Terrible.

Period by period, the Islanders are -11 in the first period, -9 in the second, -33 in the third(!!!!!!!), and -1 in overtime. They score 2.4 GF/G (28th in the league, and I’m shocked that they’re not the worst), compared to Pittsburgh’s 3.0, and they give up 3.3 GA/G (also 28th in the league), compared to Pittsburgh’s 3.1.

Prediction and Playoff watch:  It looks like Marc-Andre Fleury is in net for Pittsburgh, and apparently Yann Danis will be in net for the Islanders.  After starting off looking like a fool, Danis has been playing lights out goal in the last couple months.  The only time he saw the Penguins this year was in relief of Joey MacDonald in that ridiculous 9-2 Penguins win in December, so this is hard to predict.  Whatever, I’m a homer, so the Pens will win 4-1, because Whitney won’t be there to gift wrap any goals for the Isles and the Isles sent one of their few good forwards to Ottawa for a bag of pucks. Playoff chances, according to Sports Club Stats, currently sit at 33.4%. Today, root for the Penguins, the Maple Leafs, and the Kings.

New Addition to the Blogroll

I added a new link to the sidebar.  Puck Prospectus is the newest member of the Prospectus Entertainment Ventures family, famous for their Baseball Prospectus website and annual book.  Unlike Baseball Prospectus, however, Puck Prospectus is completely free of charge.  I don’t know if it’ll be that way forever, but they haven’t mentioned any plans to add subscription packages to the mix.

Those of you who like a little extra depth to your daily hockey reading will absolutely fall in love with this site.  The folks at BP have been hinting around that there might be a hockey version in the future, and apparently, to spout a cliché, that future is now.  I can see this being a really big deal in the hockey blogging world, and in the hockey news world at large, especially if Will Carroll’s connections come through the way they always have for his baseball injury columns.

Yes, that’s right…we may actually have real news about player injuries again.  Huzzah!

Gameday – Capitals – 22 Feb 2009

Out of the frying pan and into the fire.  Let’s not give up 4 goals today, huh?

Penguins record: 29-25-6 (64 points/1.07 PPG)

Capitals record: 37-17-5 (70 points/1.19 PPG)

Leading scorers: Evgeni Malkin (27g-59a) and Alex Ovechkin (42g-33a)

Biggest offensive bang for the salary cap buck: Tyler Kennedy ($27,083.35 per point), Tomas Fleischmann ($23,387.10 per point)

The Capitals are 25-5-2 when they score first, 12-12-3 when they don’t. If Philadelphia is up at the end of the first, they’re 23-2-3, and they’re 25-2-1 if they’re up at the end of two. Furthermore, they are 6-11-0 if they trail after one period, and 3-13-0 if they trail after two. For all the supposed firepower this team has, and for all the supposed clutch third period ability that Ovie is supposed to have, this team’s ability to come from behind late in games leaves a lot to be desired.

Washington is 23-10-1 when they outshoot you, and 14-7-4 when they don’t. Finally, a split that makes sense in this category.

Period by period, the Capitals are +12 in the first period, +6 in the second, +6 in the third, and +2 in overtime. Stop them in the first and they’re downright ordinary. They score 3.3 GF/G (tied for 4th in the league), compared to Pittsburgh’s 3.0 (yay, back to 3!), and they give up 2.8 GA/G (tied for 9th in the league), compared to Pittsburgh’s 3.0.

Prediction and Playoff watch: I feel the need to justify my little dig at Ovechkin’s late-game heroics.  Yes, he is leading the league this year in game-winning goals.  He’s been at or near the top of that list for the last several years.  It’s a nice feather for his cap, no doubt.  It’s also luck.  Clutch is luck.  Ovie is near the top of that list every year, and will be every year, because he scores lots of goals.  Period.  The more goals you score at any point in the game, the more likely it is that one of them will happen to be the game winner.  If you look at the rest of the list, you’ll see good players on there.  You’ll also see folks like Jeremy Roenick, who was 2nd in the league with 10 last year, or Milan Michalek, who’s been on the list in the last couple years, both times with 8 GWG, once tied with Alexander the Great himself.  Neither one of them are even one-point-per-game players.

I can’t seem to get information on who’s playing in goal today. Playoff chances, according to Sports Club Stats, currently sit at 41.4%. Today, root for the Penguins, the Maple Leafs, and the Avalanche.  All three of those games today have potentially a lot of influence on the Pens’ playoff chances.

Gameday – Flyers – 21 Feb 2009

First, a couple small announcements for the blog. The first is that WordPress has added threaded commenting capability to WordPress.com blogs, and I’ve enabled it. It should be a bit easier to follow conversations now, should we ever get into a lengthy one.  Secondly, I decided to enable Gravatar support.  If you’re not familiar, a Gravatar is a globally-recognized avatar linked to your e-mail address.  It works on all WordPress blogs (that I’m aware of) as long as the admin has it enabled, along with a ton of other sites around the intarwebz.  If you don’t have one already, hit the link and follow the instructions.  It’s easy as pie.

So, after a win against the faltering Canadiens in which the score was a lot closer than the game appeared to the naked eye, the Penguins face the hated Flyers.  Joy.  All that team knows how to do is punish the Penguins physically and use that to their decided advantage.  It’s games like these where I really miss having guys like Jarkko Ruutu, Ryan Malone, Gary Roberts, and even Colby Armstrong waiting to jump over the boards.  Aside from Orpik and, I suppose, Godard, the threat of getting annihilated by a check when facing the Penguins this year is pretty low.  Oh, well.  Too bad Derian “Pylon” Hatcher won’t be in the lineup.

Penguins record: 28-25-6 (62 points/1.05 PPG)

Flyers record: 31-16-9 (71 points/1.27 PPG)

Leading scorers: Evgeni Malkin (26g-58a) and Jeff Carter (34g-25a)

Biggest offensive bang for the salary cap buck: Tyler Kennedy ($27,083.35 per point), Scottie Upshall ($61,250.00 per point)

The Flyers are 24-4-5 when they score first, 7-12-4 when they don’t. If Philadelphia is up at the end of the first, they’re 20-1-2, and they’re also 20-1-2 if they’re up at the end of two. Furthermore, they are 5-9-3 if they trail after one period, and 2-14-3 if they trail after two. This is one of the widest splits I’ve seen while writing this blog.

Philadelphia is 10-8-4 when they outshoot you, and 21-8-5 when they don’t. Like Montreal, they seem to stand a better chance of winning if they avoid shooting lots of pucks—much better in this case.  I wonder if it’s because they only start shooting a lot if the game opens up and their team really isn’t built for that sort of thing.

Period by period, the Flyers are +3 in the first period, +1 in the second, +17 in the third, and +2 in overtime.  That, to me, looks like a team that comes from behind often; however, their record when trailing going into the third period belies that.  I’m not certain what’s going on here. They score 3.2 GF/G (tied for 6th in the league), compared to Pittsburgh’s 2.9, and they give up 2.8 GA/G (tied for 9th in the league), compared to Pittsburgh’s 3.0.  That’s a winning combination.

Prediction and Playoff watch: It looks like Martin Biron will be in net for Philadelphia and Marc-Andre Fleury is probable to be in net for Pittsburgh. Biron started off the year quite poorly, but in the last couple months he’s been money in the bank.  Unfortunately for him, he has a bad history of tanking against the Penguins (an .867 save percentage so far this season), so this could go either way.  Speaking of money in the bank, that’s exactly what Fleury is in his 11 games against Atlantic Division foes this year.  His 5-1-4 record doesn’t look that great, but his 2.08 GAA and .939 save percentage do. With Dan Bylsma preaching aggressiveness and the team taking so well to it, I’ll go out on a  limb and say 5-3 Pittsburgh.  Playoff chances, according to Sports Club Stats, currently sit at 34.3%.  Today, root for the Penguins, Senators, Bruins, and Sabres.